The perils of attractiveness

NATO’s eastern flank countries facing American uncertainty

Abstract

This study examines the evolving national security strategies of four NATO eastern flank countries -- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia -- amid growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitment to European defense, particularly during and after the Trump administration. Prompted by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, each nation has revised its strategic posture, emphasising NATO’s central role while downplaying the EU’s capacity as a standalone security guarantor. Despite similarities in threat perception and the prioritization of deterrence, notable differences exist in strategic focus, procurement policies, and levels of domestic consensus. All four countries remain heavily reliant on U.S. military presence and funding, with limited investment in hedging strategies or EU-based security alternatives. This dependency exposes them to heightened vulnerability should U.S. foreign policy shift away from European commitments. The paper concludes that without diversified security frameworks, these states risk deepening strategic insecurity, underscoring the limitations of their current “logic of attractiveness” toward the United States.